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Murder, uneasy neighbors and dissillusioned opposition…

These are the topics that are covered in the latest International Crisis Group report on Uzbekistan Political Murder in Central Asia: No Time to End Uzbekistan’s Isolation. The ICG report as usually deeply elaborates on the existing problems of Uzbekistan giving in-depth analyzes on each topic. Not surprisingly, the murder of a young prominent journalist Alisher Saipov in Osh city of Kyrgyzstan that borders with Andijon of Uzbekistan was placed in the first place in the report. As the report states:

There are strong indications that Uzbek security forces murdered one of Kyrgyzstan’s most prominent journalists, Alisher Saipov, in October 2007 during the build-up to Uzbekistan’s end of year presidential elections, most likely because of his involvement in Erk (Freedom), a leading exile opposition party.

Alisher Saipov’s murder was yet another clear example that the current regime’s ‘increasingly willing to move against any perceived danger, even if it involves pre-emptive strikes in foreign territory’.

‘Despite smiles and photo-ops, there is little love lost between the leaders of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan’, reads the report. The analyzes of Uzbek-Kyrgyz relations on security issues is given a second place in the report. Calling Kyrgyzstan an uneasy neighbor, the ICG report states that Uzbekistan is demanding too much from its Kyrgyz neighbor. According to the report, representatives of Kyrgyz law enforcement bodies are not happy with the developments in Uzbekistan.

“When there is unrest in Uzbekistan, we [Kyrgyzstan] suffer”, he said, referring to the thousands of refugees who swept across the border after the Andijon massacre. “That was local unrest. Just think what would happen if the whole country rose up”.

However,

Kyrgyz intelligence officers are impressed, however, by the equipment, pay and discipline of the Uzbek security and military structures, which, one said, have everything to lose if Karimov goes, so are unlikely to revolt against him.

It is not secret that all these “equipment, pay and discipline” are not used on the purposes of granting nation security and peace, but keeping them down under the control of the current regime.

The report also includes analyzes of the situation with the Uzbek opposition, mainly Erk Democratic Party, that seemed to be silenced forever by the countrywide sweeping arrests, trials and long prison terms that followed the Andijon events of May 2005.

The ICG report also analyzed the US and EU politics towards Uzbekistan that became very fragile after the US and EU sanctions on Uzbekistan right after the uprisings in Andijon. The sanctions that were posed to push and isolate the regime proved themselves to be inefficient. Moreover, both US and EU show their high interest in the country and recently sent their high ranking top politicians to Uzbekistan - Admiral William Fallon and Pierre Morel respectively. It seems the West is doing a step forward towards Uzbekistan. Well, Uzbeks say that “if the mountain won’t come to Muhammad, Muhammad must go to the mountain.”

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