Finally, the central election committee of Uzbekistan had reported that there would be presidential election later this year. As the chairman of the committee Mirzoulugbek Abdusalomov informed mass media, the election will be held on December 23, 2007, as it is dictated by election laws - the first Sunday of the 3rd decade of December.

Now, when the question concerning the upcoming presidential elections is already answered, interested parties are waiting for the answer of the next, but not less vital, question – what will be Karimov’s next steps. Will he stay in his position on the top of the country, where he has been for the past 18 years or give way to his successor, which is also a great political enigma today. There are many assumptions concerning this.

Some say that the political system of Uzbekistan has developed itself to the point where it cannot survive without Islam Karimov, as he is the key actor in the system. Taking into consideration the fact that there are no obvious successors at the moment, it can be assumed that Islam Karimov will keep his position. The problem is that legally Islam Karimov has nor rights to run for presidency in upcoming elections. Though, where is a will, there is a way - if you want something badly enough, you can find the means to get it. This proverb is especially applicable in Uzbekistan. It is not hard for Karimov to amend the constitution, or interpret some laws to his advantage. There are theories that after “winning” the upcoming presidential election, Karimov will force the parliament to vote for his lifelong presidency. Why not? If Kazakhstan can do it, Uzbekistan will follow the tradition, as Karimov himself once said that “we [Uzbekistan] are no worse then others,” meaning that Uzbekistan can do whatever others are doing. Taking into account the fear in the internal political arena because of the recent cleanings among the politicians, the members of Oliy Majlis (parliament) will unanimously vote for it.

Others say that Islam Karimov will eventually give way to his successor. Here, ideas concerning the successor split up into two groups: the ones who think that successor is president’s daughter Gulnara Karimova and the others thinking that Rustam Inoyatov, the head of the National Security Service (former KGB), will succeed Karimov. Both parties have very good arguments supporting their points. Gulnara Karimova has become an important person in the ruling circle of Uzbekistan in a very short time. She controls very large portion of business in Uzbekistan, especially in Tashkent, where she has many restaurants and night clubs. Her authority and influence, plus father’s patronage could play an essential role in inheriting the presidency. Whereas, Rustam Inoyatov is also a leading figure in the political life of Uzbekistan. Some people say that he is the next person after Karimov, who has almost limitless power in the country. Observers say that Inoyatov’s influence is getting more and more wide from day to day, which may be a signal to future changes.

It is too early to make assumptions at this stage, I guess. Uzbekistan is famous for its sudden changes, so we cannot exactly predict what can happen in near future. However, one thing is more or less obvious – the players may change, but the system will apparently stay.